IATA Has Lowered Its Forecast For A Fall In Passenger Traffic In 2020 To 55%
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has worsened the basic forecast of a fall in passenger air traffic in 2020 to last year's figure: in April, the organization expected a "failure" by 46%, now - by 55%.
IATA attributes its pessimism to several trends: slow containment of the spread of coronavirus in the United States and developing countries, reduced corporate travel (due to financial pressure on business), weak consumer confidence (due to fears of rising unemployment and risks of catching the virus).
In 2021, global passenger traffic will grow in comparison with the "depressed" base in 2020 by 62% but will be lower than in 2019 by 30%, according to the IATA. A full recovery to last year's level is not expected until 2023 - a year later than previously forecast.
Since the recovery of passenger traffic on small routes is expected to be faster than on long-haul routes, passenger traffic will recover more slowly. This indicator will not return to the "Doc-like" level until 2024 - also a year later than IATA previously predicted.
"Scientific advances in the fight against COVID-19, including the development of a successful vaccine, could help accelerate recovery. However, at present, there seem to be more downside risks than an increase in the baseline forecast," the IATA concluded.